Curriculum Vitae

Mustapha Wasseja Mohammed, PhD, GradStat

Macroeconomist and applied econometrician working across spatial econometrics, DSGE and semi-structural modelling, fiscal policy, Bayesian statistics, health econometrics, and policy analytics for emerging-market and low-income economies.

Last updated: 22 Jul 2026

Education

PhD in Economics (Spatial Econometrics)

2022

Edinburgh Business School, Heriot-Watt University, United Kingdom

Thesis: Essays on Applied Spatial Econometrics in Policy Analysis.

MSc in Economics (Macroeconomics)

2017

University of Leeds, United Kingdom

BSc in Economics and Statistics

2015

Chuka University, Kenya

Work Experience

Consultant, World Bank Group

Jan 2025 - Present

DECMG / DECRE / GFF, Washington, DC

  • Conduct research and policy analysis on macroeconomic frameworks, fiscal policy, and structural and semi-structural modelling for emerging-market and low-income countries.
  • Apply DSGE, panel-IV, Bayesian inference, state-space modelling, calibration, and simulation methods in MATLAB (Dynare), R, Python, Stata, and SQL.
  • Co-author work on local fiscal multipliers in Kenya with Steven Pennings, using Kenya's 2013 fiscal devolution as a natural experiment.
  • Build and deploy R Shiny applications packaging World Bank macroeconomic toolkits, including the Long-Term Growth Model suite and climate heat-stress tools.
  • Lead Bayesian spatio-temporal disruption modelling of HMIS/DHIS2 data for fragile-context health systems under GFF FASTR.

Quantitative Research Fellow, Black Thrive Global

Feb 2024 - Jun 2025

With King's College London affiliation, London, United Kingdom

  • Led applied econometric analysis of UK socio-economic and equity data using R, Python, SQL, and Stata.
  • Built harmonised analytical datasets from administrative and survey data with reproducible ETL pipelines and QA routines.
  • Developed indicators and Power BI / R Shiny dashboards for public agencies and partner organisations.

Statistician, Queen Mary University of London

Jan 2022 - Jan 2025

Wolfson Institute of Population Health, London, United Kingdom

  • Provided advanced statistical and quantitative support across applied research programmes.
  • Applied Bayesian and classical statistical methods to produce standardised indicators and robust comparative results across groups, sites, and time periods.

Data Scientist and Project Manager (KTP Associate)

Feb 2022 - Jan 2024

Northumbria University and Method Valuation Ltd, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom

  • Led an Innovate UK Knowledge Transfer Partnership delivering applied econometric and machine-learning analytics from design through deployment.
  • Designed PostgreSQL data warehousing for large geospatial datasets and developed Python machine-learning automated valuation models.
  • Used Docker, HPC array jobs, GitHub, and GitLab CI for reproducible analytical workflows and regression testing.

Government Research Analyst (Spatial Data Science)

Dec 2023 - Mar 2024

Valuation Office Agency, UK Government, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom

  • Designed automated ETL pipelines with Databricks, Azure Data Factory, and SQL Server for large geocoded administrative datasets.
  • Implemented QA checks in R and maintained reproducible spatial analytics codebases under GitLab version control.

Research Assistant, Heriot-Watt University and SINCHI Colombia

Jun 2020 - Dec 2021

GCRF-funded spatial econometrics and sustainable development project

  • Conducted spatial econometric and CGE/GAMS analyses of sustainable land-use programmes in the Colombian Amazon.
  • Built municipality-level spatial panel datasets integrating environmental, socio-economic, and administrative indicators.

Statistician, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Programme

2016

Kenya

  • Analysed Kenya Malaria Indicator Survey data to assess malaria prevalence and public-health implications in Kilifi County.

Research Associate, Bridge International Academies

Aug 2015 - Jul 2016

Nairobi, Kenya

  • Designed and analysed randomized controlled trials and household surveys on school-feeding and e-learning interventions.

Research Assistant and Junior Statistician, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

Aug 2012 - Dec 2015

Macroeconomic Statistics Directorate, Nairobi, Kenya

  • Compiled government finance statistics under the IMF Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 framework.
  • Consolidated central and county government finance data and coordinated with national and international statistical stakeholders.

Publications and Working Papers

  • Tipping Points, Climate Damage, and the Natural Rate of Interest - working paper, 2026.
  • Looking Through the Price of War: Central Bank Responses to War Shocks in Third Countries - working paper, May 2026.
  • A Precise Zero: Local Fiscal Multipliers from Kenya's Devolution Natural Experiment - with Steven Pennings, working paper, 2025.
  • A DSGE Model for Assessing Resource Revenue Allocation Strategies: Evidence from Kenya - with Havard Halland and Arnab Bhattacharjee, working paper, 2025.
  • Szendrei, T., Eross, A., Mohammed, M., and Ersoy, E. Fit for purpose? Investigating the effects of feed-in-tariffs on renewable energy penetration in Europe. Applied Energy, 395, 126102, 2025.
  • A Diagnostic Framework for Network Dependence Testing with Endogenous Weight Matrices - manuscript under review, 2025.

See Research page

Software

  • dsge - Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelling in R.
  • spmixW - Bayesian spatial panel data models with convex combinations of weight matrices.
  • dcce - Dynamic Common Correlated Effects estimator for heterogeneous panels.
  • spmixw - Python port of the spmixW package for Bayesian spatial panel models.

See Software page

Technical Skills

Programming and Modelling

R, Python, MATLAB (Dynare), Stata, SQL, Julia, C++, Stan, EViews, Quarto, RMarkdown.

Macroeconomic and Fiscal Modelling

New Keynesian DSGE, semi-structural macroeconomic frameworks, CGE/GAMS, fiscal multipliers, scenario analysis, fiscal sustainability, and sovereign-wealth-fund design.

Econometrics and Statistics

Spatial econometrics, panel-IV, local projections, difference-in-differences, Bayesian inference, MCMC, state-space modelling, calibration, and machine learning.

Reproducibility and Deployment

Git, GitHub Actions, GitLab CI, Docker, HPC array jobs, PostgreSQL, Azure Data Factory, Databricks, AWS, and R Shiny dashboards.

Teaching and Training

  • Training delivery in DSGE modelling, macroeconomic forecasting, Bayesian estimation, and quantitative policy analysis.
  • Teaching and applied quantitative support in econometrics, statistics, macroeconomics, spatial econometrics, and data analysis for economic policy.
  • Capacity development and applied modelling training through academic, policy, and project-based settings, including SINCHI Colombia, Queen Mary University of London, and Innovate UK KTP work.

Professional Certifications

  • Artificial Intelligence and Data Science for Leaders, University of Chicago, USA.
  • CMI Level 5 Award in Leadership and Management, Ashorne Hill Management College, United Kingdom.
  • Database Design with SQL Server, City University of London, United Kingdom.