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Shock-based alternative scenarios

Source: R/condition.R
qpm_scenario.Rd

Adds a specified path of structural shocks to a forecast – "what if oil pushes the exchange rate 10 percent weaker next quarter?" – without any inversion. Under anticipated = TRUE the shock path is announced at the start of the forecast and expectations react ahead of it.

Usage

qpm_scenario(fc, shocks, anticipated = FALSE, label = NULL)

Arguments

fc

A qpm_forecast.

shocks

Named list: one entry per shock, each a named vector of shock sizes (raw equation units) by period, e.g. list(eps_q = c(h1 = 1.5)).

anticipated

Announced at start (TRUE) or surprises (FALSE).

label

Optional scenario label for printing.

Value

The shifted qpm_forecast (bands unchanged: a deterministic scenario shifts the mean, not the uncertainty).

Examples

sol <- qpm_solve(qpm_template("bkl"))
fc <- qpm_forecast(sol, horizon = 8)
dep <- qpm_scenario(fc, shocks = list(eps_q = c(h1 = 3)),
                    label = "10pct depreciation")